gdp-pred
Time series prediction of US GDP
Project maintained by sjmiller8182
Hosted on GitHub Pages — Theme by mattgraham
Data
Source
The data was mined from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data.
Structure
There are 195 observations of 15 variables.
The observations are taken quarterly, starting at 1971 Q1 and ending 2019 Q3.
Variables
| Variable |
Description |
FRED ID |
| Date |
Date of observation |
N/A |
| gdp_change |
Change in GDP from the previous observation |
A191RP1Q027SBEA |
| unrate |
Unemployment rate |
UNRATE |
| nfjobs |
Non-farming jobs |
PAYEMS |
| treas10yr |
10 Year US treasury constant maturity rate |
DGS10 |
| fedintrate |
US federal interest rate |
FEDFUNDS |
| personincomechg |
Change in real disposable personal income |
A067RO1Q156NBEA |
| cpi |
Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers: all ttems in U.S. city average |
CPIAUCNS |
| population |
Population |
POPTHM |
| corpprofitchg |
Corporate profits after tax (converted to percent change) |
CP |
| crude_wti |
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate |
WTISPLC |
| gold |
Gold Fixing Price 10:30 A.M. (London time) in london bullion market, based in U.S. Dollars |
GOLDAMGBD228NLBM |
| ppi |
Producer price index |
PPIACO |
| japan |
US/Japan exchange rate |
EXJPUS |
| uk |
US/UK exchange rate |
EXUSUK |
Change in GDP (gdp_change) is considered the response variable.
Reference
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [A191RP1Q027SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RP1Q027SBEA, March 6, 2020.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, March 6, 2020.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate [DGS10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10, March 6, 2020.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Effective Federal Funds Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS, March 6, 2020.
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [A067RO1Q156NBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A067RO1Q156NBEA, March 6, 2020.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average [CPIAUCNS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS, March 6, 2020.
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Population [POPTHM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM, March 6, 2020.
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) [CP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP, March 6, 2020.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) [WTISPLC], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTISPLC, March 6, 2020.
- ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA), Gold Fixing Price 10:30 A.M. (London time) in London Bullion Market, based in U.S. Dollars [GOLDAMGBD228NLBM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDAMGBD228NLBM, March 6, 2020.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Japan / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate [EXJPUS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXJPUS, March 6, 2020.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), U.S. / U.K. Foreign Exchange Rate [EXUSUK], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXUSUK, March 6, 2020.